Women, population decline and the hedonic treadmill

October 2024

Two-thirds of the world's population lives in areas with fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Monetary incentives are failing to reverse this trend, making immigration the only solution. Still, immigration brings its own set of challenges that are not easily addressed. The reason for population decline is the single minded focus of individuals and governments on excessive, consumption driven- limitless growth. Individuals and governments are stuck on a hedonic treadmill of pleasure seeking – a cycle where people keep chasing higher highs but end up feeling more and more empty and unfulfilled. There is a need to relook at the causes of population decline from a more humane perspective. 

Global Perspectives on Population Decline

Japan’s population has been shrinking for 15 straight years due to extremely low birth rates. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned “Japan is standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society. Focusing attention on policies regarding children and child-rearing is an issue that cannot wait and cannot be postponed.” His words echo a growing concern among world leaders as fertility rates plummet and populations age.

Pope Francis is cautioning that Italy’s demographic crisis is a threat to its future and encouraging Italians to have children. The Pope said, “The number of births is the first indicator of the hope of a people. The problem of our world is not children being born: it is selfishness, consumerism and individualism which make people sated, lonely and unhappy”.²

A government think tank in South Korea has suggested several measures to raise the country’s low birthrate.³ These are attracting a lot of criticism⁴ . One of the measures weirdly suggests – girls start primary school a year earlier than boys.

On the other hand, we have some countries struggling with too many births. “Africa‘s high birth rate is keeping the continent poor.” –The Economist⁵. Yet, even in such countries, birth rates are declining.

Women empowerment and population control

Expert opinions say that, “As women won more rights and greater power, they stopped having so many children,” notes the book “Empty Planet”. The World Bank concurs: “The higher the level of a woman’s educational attainment, the fewer children she is likely to bear.”⁶ These views depict a world facing a demographic crisis. Women’s roles and their impact on society are under increasing scrutiny.

The women’s rights movement, initially driven by principles of human dignity, evolved alongside changing economic structures. This evolution brought both opportunities and new challenges. Women’s empowerment became a means to boost productivity and economic growth.

The logic was simple: educated women meant a higher workforce, (and cheaper) leading to more growth. Birth control rights and their participation in the workforce meant a lower rate of population growth. This meant more wealth to be distributed among less people, leading to prosperity. High fertility, on the other hand, is blamed for perpetuating poverty in less developed countries. Countries with very high fertility rates are linked to poverty, illiteracy, diseases, and less economic growth. 

In line with this thought, globally fertility rates were brought down. Well, it did show good results in terms of prosperity. India was ‘encouraged’ to pursue population control by millions of dollars of loans from international organizations⁷. The international push to control the population was so extreme that in 1965, US President Lyndon B. Johnson refused to provide food aid to India—at the time threatened by famine—until it agreed to incentivize sterilization⁸. Sanjay Gandhi, the then prime minister’s son, pursued forced sterilizations. Gladly, unlike China, this regime did not last long in India.

China practiced its barbaric one child policy with utmost cruelty. Millions of pregnancies were forcibly aborted and women were sterilized. This Karma has now come back to haunt China⁹. It should not be a surprise if China forcibly impregnates women to increase its birth rate.

At a societal level as well, there were negative consequences of this narrative. Women without jobs were looked down upon (by fellow women as well). Instead of education and jobs empowering and freeing women, they made them slaves of the new economy. Participation in economic activities was seen as the only way to an enhanced status in society.

This narrative was pushed so strongly that now we have to deal with fertility rates that have plummeted far below population replacement levels. (Italy¹⁰ , Japan ¹¹, UK¹² ). Experts, researchers, policy makers, and economists largely share the same opinion. They believe that empowering and educating women leads to fewer babies.

Worried policymakers

This trend worries policy makers – not out of concern for people’s happiness from having children, but due to economic impacts. Fewer people means a smaller workforce, less consumers, and lower tax revenues. It leaves governments with less money and businesses short on workers. In Japan, 260 companies went bankrupt in 2023 as they could not find enough workers.  Lesser people also means decline in basic services and infrastructure. Also, the population doesn’t simply decline. It ages. The ageing population is dependent, and needs a larger welfare budget, which is hard to provide with a declining workforce. 

Market-driven economies have grappled with balancing population growth and economic stability. Initially, there were concerns about overpopulation obstructing growth. Now we stare at an economic collapse due to declining birth rates. The push for women’s empowerment, once celebrated, now clashes with the ideals of consumption driven economy. If given a choice, some people would want to change fertility rates with the press of a button. They will even consider putting a chip in every man and woman to dictate their procreation cycles, optimizing consumption and production while maintaining appropriate population levels in production countries and target markets. They wish central banks could control fertility like liquidity.

Some governments are trying hard to incentivize people to increase birth rates. Most of these measures are related to the economics of raising children and some are around providing support services. Though the efforts are mostly insufficient, countries with adequate spending have also not managed to reverse this trend. Economic incentives are failing globally¹³. There is some discussion around the need of men to step up their efforts in raising children – especially in countries like Japan. Nonetheless, that too has had little effects so far.

To summarize the ongoing discussion – In developed economies, empowered women are not having enough children, which is a threat to the nation. Conversely, in poorer countries uneducated women having excessive children are said to cause poverty. Women seemingly can’t win – no matter their choices.

The only solution that countries see today is – immigration, which has also started to fail because we do not live in an ideal world.(Sweden wants to pay immigrants up to $34,000 to voluntarily leave¹⁴ ). There is hatred based on race, religion, language, ethnicity. In the guise of immigration anti-social elements also manage to get in. Bad guys supported by useful idiots in countries with ageing and declining populations – doesn’t seem like a good idea.

Does this mean that high education and development lead to an existential crisis for society, race, and country, while uneducated, poverty-ridden societies are growing in numbers?

We have strayed significantly from the right path. Before proposing an approach to tackle this, let’s understand – 

Why population decline is a problem that needs to be taken seriously. 

Many young people feel having children isn’t their responsibility, especially when faced with economic hardships. Having children requires a major commitment. It comes with financial risks and immense effort in today’s world of high inflation and job insecurity. They question why they should prioritize boosting the economy or maintaining their ethnic group’s numbers over their personal well-being and life choices. Some are also citing climate change concerns to opt out of parenthood.

There are three kinds of impacts of falling birth rates, these can be categorized as – economic, societal and individual. Economic impacts have been discussed before.

Societal impact

Insufficient population can leave a country vulnerable to both internal and external threats, which is a concern for national security. Countries, people, races are continuously competing or they have been at war for centuries. Some groups might not produce enough children, while others will. Those who grow powerful in numbers will try to overpower others. Some are motivated by their religion, race, language, ethnicity, and world views. As they gain power, they not only demand more rights but also try to suppress the rights and practices of others that conflict with their own. They will try to gain control of the nation and change its culture. Groups driven by foreign powers and having aims of global domination will take control of the host nation’s resources. 

Countries historically associated with specific ethnic or religious groups are experiencing rapid demographic changes. These shifts often lead to feelings of insecurity among the traditional majority, sometimes causing them to react defensively against perceived threats, even when such threats may not actually exist.

With not enough people to fight in the army, a nation can’t defend itself against external threats as well. 

Individual impact

People with children are generally happier than those who do not have them. Those without children are also more likely to have mental and physical health issues. With falling numbers in a family, there is a lack of support to fall back on, to interact with, to learn from, to reach out in times of distress. 

The impact of all of these economic, societal and individual factors is more profound on women than men. In wars and societal power struggles, it is women who are the most vulnerable.

The real issue

However, after writing so much about fertility rates, what if I told you – population decline of a country is not the real problem. Throughout history, societies have grown and shrunk. Wars, diseases, and famines have wiped out millions.

The core issue isn’t just population decline.

It’s the wider societal shifts we’re seeing. People are marrying later. In some places like Japan, fewer people are getting married at all. Couples are having kids later, if at all. Many choose to be dual-income with no children. The real trouble is the trend of people not wanting to have children becoming widespread. It’s problematic when educated and well-to -do people rarely have large families. These patterns, taken together, point to deeper societal issues that merit attention.

The root cause and suggested approach

Current policy making is mainly driven by excessive consumption. This mindset views pregnant women caring for themselves, mothers breastfeeding, parents bonding with newborns, and teaching children as ‘unproductive’ activities. These don’t directly contribute to the economy. Women need support and time to take care of their physical health post pregnancy. There’s also a considerable emotional toll on mothers separated from their infants during working hours. The greed driven economic approach reduces everyone to mere workers and consumers.

Policy making needs to value the essential joys and needs of human life. Society needs to respect a woman’s role as a mother. During motherhood, women must be provided with the required care, nourishment, mental and physical safety. They should not have to worry about their career gaps while they bring a life into this world. 

There is another aspect of today’s world – it offers never ending pleasures, insecurity of jobs, and unaffordable basic living conditions, all at the same time. This has further ensured that families can’t afford pregnancies, children, and gaps in careers for child birth.

At a younger age, it might feel liberating to not have the burden of children. However, as people grow old, they are unable to gain the same level of happiness from these pleasures. A feeling of emptiness comes in. It cannot be filled with any other pleasure, like food, sex, traveling, or running marathons. Nothing helps unless you are extremely driven by a higher purpose.

The world is behaving like a human entangled in a hedonic adaptation. It’s the phenomenon where we become accustomed to pleasurable activities and experiences. This leads to a decline in the enjoyment or satisfaction we derive from them over time. When we constantly engage in one or more pleasure-seeking behaviors for example – consuming digital content, food, sweets, alcohol, clothes, sex and start deriving pleasure only through this consumption – with no feeling of contentment, the brain’s reward pathways become desensitized.

This leads to a few key effects:

1. Diminished feelings of pleasure and satisfaction from the activity over time. The brain requires higher and higher levels of stimulation to achieve the same level of reward.
2. Increased cravings and compulsive behaviors to seek out the pleasurable activity and get the diminished “high.” This can lead to addiction-like patterns.
3. A general sense of lethargy, apathy, and lack of motivation outside of the pleasure-seeking activities as the brain’s reward system becomes dysregulated.

This cycle of hedonic adaptation and the brain’s diminishing response to excessive pleasure-seeking is often described as the “hedonic treadmill” – where people keep chasing higher highs but end up feeling more and more empty and unfulfilled. In individuals, understanding and breaking this cycle is an important part of addiction treatment and recovery.

This concept of hedonic adaptation can be extended to understand societal trends, particularly the decline in birth rates. The constant pursuit of career advancement, material wealth, and diverse life experiences creates a similar cycle of diminishing returns in life satisfaction. Having children, which historically provided a sense of purpose and long-term fulfillment, is now often perceived as an obstacle to these pursuits.

Moreover, the societal emphasis on individual achievement and consumption leads people to continuously seek new experiences or accomplishments, rather than finding fulfillment in family life. Even if couples have enough resources, they tend to prioritize other pleasures (instant gratification) over the long term happiness that is derived from having children. This shift in priorities, driven by a collective hedonic treadmill, contributes to the declining interest in having children.

Additionally, the stress and insecurity generated by this cycle – the constant need for more money, better secure jobs, and newer experiences – makes the idea of raising children seem overwhelmingly challenging or less appealing. Thus, hedonic adaptation at a societal level contributes to population decline.

A rising global trend of humans not wanting to have children is a significant deviation from our natural behavior. This trend suggests something is terribly wrong with us. It cannot be solved only with simple monetary incentives. 

Nature is trying to tell us something. It communicates through climate change and rising mental health issues. Infertility and the hyper sexualization of girls and women in the social media are also signals. Crimes against women and the trend of not wanting children further emphasize this message. We have made the world a hostile place for new life to be created and nurtured. The current way of living is at odds with nature and our natural instincts. 

Conventional economic approaches alone are insufficient to address population decline and societal well-being. We need a more holistic approach which offers a nuanced understanding of human behavior and societal balance. We cannot abruptly stop people from seeking pleasure. We cannot stop technological innovation. The world will always be in a state of change. We need to achieve the right balance of activities in society. The ancient Indian concept of the three gunas (Sattva, Rajas, and Tamas) from the Bhagavad Gita offers such a framework. While this concept has traditionally been applied to individual spiritual growth, I propose that it can be extended to societal-level policy making. This approach will be explored in depth through a case study on Japan’s population crisis in a separate essay. Japan’s experience offers valuable lessons on the pitfalls of single-minded economic focus and the importance of holistic societal well-being.¹⁵

Moreover, nations also need guiding principles for optimal population growth and distribution. A balanced mix of higher and lower fertility rates across different societal segments is crucial for long-term stability. I explore these principles in depth in a separate essay.

We must reimagine an economy that values human flourishing, cherishes family life, and honors parenthood, particularly motherhood¹⁶.  By expanding the conversation beyond economics, I wish to draw on ancient and modern wisdom. I aim to envisage new societal paradigms. We need to build a future where having children is joyful and part of a fulfilling life. This will enable civilizations to truly flourish.

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